On the first day of President Lee Jae-myung’s inauguration, it was found that retail investors were piling money into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) betting on a decline in the KOSPI index. Although President Lee pledged during the presidential election campaign to reach 'KOSPI 5000' and expressed a willingness to push for a stock market stimulus package, some investors appeared to judge that a short-term rebound was likely.
According to Koscom data on the 5th, the top ETF by net buying by individuals the previous day was Samsung Asset Management’s 'KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X', which tracks double the daily decline rate of the KOSPI 200 futures. Individuals net bought this ETF worth 63.3 billion won. The second was 'KODEX Inverse', which tracks the daily decline rate of the KOSPI 200 futures, with net purchases of 18 billion won.
From the 30th of last month to the 2nd of this month, individuals net sold 61.3 billion won of KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X and 14.7 billion won of KODEX Inverse. However, they switched to a buying trend the previous day. They also purchased Mirae Asset Global Investments’ 'TIGER 200 Futures Inverse 2X' and 'TIGER Inverse' ETFs for 3.2 billion won and 700 million won, respectively.
Conversely, the 'KODEX Leverage' product, which individuals net bought for 68.2 billion won during this period, sold 114.2 billion won the previous day. It is inferred that they quickly realized profits as the KOSPI index rose by more than 2% the previous day.
In the securities industry, despite the stock market rising in a short period, there is a possibility of temporary declines once profit-taking selling occurs, while it is viewed positively for the mid to long term. As of 11:36 a.m. on that day, the KOSPI index rose to 2831.11 during intraday trading, marking a new peak following the previous day.
Labor researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, “After the launch of the new government, we can seek benefits in industries such as artificial intelligence (AI), bio, content, and defense through the cultivation of future strategic industries, support for small and medium-sized ventures, and the establishment of a scientific and technological ecosystem. The combination of currency and fiscal policy implies a liquidity market and draws attention to small to mid-sized and growth stocks.”
However, there are opinions that it will be difficult for the stock market to rebound significantly for the time being due to external risks such as tariff shocks from the U.S. Kim Kyung-hoon, a researcher at DAOL Investment & Securities, said, “The domestic economy is expected to be in a contraction trend until the first half of next year,” and added, “The upper limit of the KOSPI is limited, and a sideways market is expected, supported at the 2400 point.”
He added, “In terms of a mid-to-long-term stock strategy, sectors with growth stocks and defensive stock concepts, such as healthcare, essential consumer goods, utilities, and telecommunications, are likely to be promising.”