Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings announcement, interest in SK hynix's stock is increasing. This is because SK hynix supplies high bandwidth memory (HBM) to NVIDIA, significantly impacting its stock price.
U.S. NVIDIA will announce its earnings for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year (February to April) on the 28th (the morning of the 29th in Korea). Recently, after NVIDIA's earnings announcements for three consecutive quarters, SK hynix's stock price fell in the Korean market. To avoid repeating this trend, NVIDIA is expected to announce earnings that exceed market expectations and additionally provide detailed plans for products for export to China.
According to the financial investment industry on the 27th, the expected revenue for NVIDIA's first quarter, as compiled by Bloomberg, is $43.1 billion (approximately 59 trillion won). It is estimated to have increased by about 9.7% ($3.8 billion) compared to the previous quarter.
NVIDIA's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter is projected to be $0.893, an increase of only $0.003 compared to the previous quarter. The Donald Trump administration limited the export of NVIDIA's low-end AI chips, the H20, to China last month, estimating losses could reach up to $5.5 billion (approximately 7.5 trillion won).
Since announcing its 2024 fiscal year fourth-quarter earnings in February 2023, NVIDIA has recorded nine consecutive quarters of sales and EPS exceeding market expectations in what is known as an 'earnings surprise.' However, as the interest of market participants has shifted from past results to future management outlooks, the stock price of NVIDIA has actually fallen even after announcing earnings surprises since the release of its 2025 fiscal year second-quarter earnings in August last year.
SK hynix, which supplies HBM, a core component for AI chips, has repeatedly been affected. The stock price of SK hynix fell by 5.35% on August 29 last year and also declined by 1.06% on November 21 of the same year. Additionally, there was a 1.87% downturn on February 27 this year. All these occurred immediately after NVIDIA's earnings announcements.
Samsung Electronics showed a relatively low correlation in stock movements following NVIDIA's earnings announcements. This is because Samsung Electronics has a limited position in NVIDIA's HBM supply chain. However, when the semiconductor sector experiences a correction following NVIDIA's earnings announcement, Samsung Electronics' stock price has also shown a downward trend.
It is important whether NVIDIA can alleviate market concerns. The financial investment industry has identified three major viewpoint points: ▲ Whether NVIDIA will clearly present a new AI chip production plan for exports to China in response to U.S. regulations ▲ How much the yield (ratio of good products to total production) of the new graphics processing unit (GPU) Blackwell has improved ▲ Whether the guidance for the second quarter of the 2026 fiscal year (May to July) exceeds market expectations.
In particular, if NVIDIA's new AI chips for exports to China utilize high-spec graphics DRAM 'GDDR7', it could provide opportunities for both SK hynix and Samsung Electronics. Kim Dong-won, a researcher at KB Securities, noted, "If the demand for AI servers expands to include HBM and GDDR7, the general memory semiconductor market is expected to rebound continuously," and added, "We can expect the benefit spectrum for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to expand."