The securities industry offered mixed forecasts regarding NCSOFT's future outlook. As the performance of existing games showed a marked decline, attention shifted to the success of upcoming new releases.
NCSOFT's consolidated revenue for the first quarter of this year was 360.3 billion won, and its operating profit was 5.2 billion won. This represents a decrease of 9.5% and 79.7%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. While revenue met market expectations (consensus), operating profit fell below the consensus.
By game, Lineage M generated 112.7 billion won in revenue, reflecting a growth of 7.2% year-on-year. Lineage 2M earned 37.9 billion won, and Lineage W generated 53.1 billion won, all showing negative growth.
Among NCSOFT's upcoming titles, Aion 2 is noted as the most anticipated release. The launch of Aion 2 is expected in the fourth quarter of this year. However, forecasts regarding Aion 2 have been mixed.
Lee Hyo-jin, a researcher at MERITZ Securities, noted that after a launch centered around Korea and Taiwan, annual revenue is projected to reach 424.8 billion won by 2026. However, since the focus is on MMORPG players, the impact of new releases on NCSOFT, which is highly dependent on the genre, is expected to be somewhat limited.
On the other hand, Lee Chang-young, a researcher at Yuanta Securities Korea, stated that "Aion was a title that held the top spot in PC bang market share for 160 consecutive weeks in 2008, so the demand is likely to be significant," and he analyzed that "Aion 2's revenue in Korea and Taiwan is estimated at 500 billion won."
The target price from Yuanta Securities Korea was the highest at 310,000 won. DAOL Investment & Securities set a price of 220,000 won, and Eugene Securities set it at 190,000 won. MERITZ Securities proposed a target price of 170,000 won. The investment opinion from MERITZ Securities is hold, while Yuanta Securities Korea, DAOL Investment & Securities, and Eugene Securities rated it as buy.