The Export-Import Bank of Korea projected on the 2nd that exports in the second quarter of this year would be around $160 billion, a decrease of 6 to 7% compared to the same period last year.
The Export-Import Bank's International Economic Research Institute noted in its 'Evaluation of export performance for the first quarter of 2025 and outlook for the second quarter' that "the uncertainty in the economy is expected to increase due to the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. and changes in trade policy, leading to a continued expected decline in exports."
The bank estimated that the export leading index, which turned to a downward trend in the fourth quarter of last year and has maintained a declining trend for three consecutive quarters, would continue to indicate a slowdown in export performance for the time being. The export leading index is constructed to predict the degree of changes in exports by compiling variables such as the economy of major export destination countries, export-related import amounts, order status by industry, and exchange rates.
A bank official said, "Especially if negotiations on tariffs with the U.S. do not go well, and if the impact becomes widespread or if consumer weakness deepens due to inflationary pressure in the U.S. caused by tariff imposition, the extent of the decline in exports may expand."