As Korea, China, and Japan enter a large-scale golden holiday, tourism and leisure stocks are rising. The domestic market, which coincides with Labor Day on May 1, Children's Day on May 5, and a substitute holiday for Buddha's Birthday on May 6, along with China's Labor Day holiday (May 1–5) and Japan's Golden Week (April 29–May 6), is expected to see a surge in tourism demand. There is growing optimism in the securities market that this holiday will mark the beginning of a recovery in the travel and leisure sectors.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 28th, during this month (April 2–27), the stock prices of the travel companies Very Good Tour, Yellow Balloon Tour, and Modetour Network rose by 14.4%, 7.5%, and 5.6%, respectively.
Casino stocks, such as Lotte Tour Development (25.7%), GKL (13.2%), and PARADISE (12.2%), along with duty-free stock Hotel Shilla (14.6%) and Shinsegae (13.4%), also saw increases. These figures significantly exceed the KOSPI's increase of 2.7% during the same period.
Concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic recession still persist. However, as the political uncertainty that began at the end of last year is gradually resolving, the number of foreign tourists visiting Korea has increased, and consumer sentiment shows signs of recovery. The cumulative number of foreign visitors to Korea in January and February this year reached 2.42 million, marking an approximately 20% increase compared to the previous year. In the first quarter, the number of foreign visitors to Jeju Island increased by 4.7% year-on-year due to the rise in tourists from China and Taiwan. This year, more than 20 million foreigners are expected to visit Korea.
During the May holiday period from the 1st to the 6th, room reservation rates at major hotels in Korea, such as Lotte Tour Development's Grand Hyatt Jeju and the Seoul and Jeju Shilla Hotels, are reported to exceed 90%, indicating near-full occupancy.
Forecasts suggest that the recovery of related stock performances is expected not only during this holiday but also during the upcoming October National Day golden holiday in China and the introduction of a visa exemption for Chinese group tourists in the third quarter. DAISHIN SECURITIES (42,000 won → 50,000 won) and Shinhan Investment & Securities (38,000 won → 41,000 won) have both raised their target prices for Hotel Shilla. DAISHIN SECURITIES noted that the duty-free shop market has passed its lowest point and that city store revenue is improving, adjusting its investment opinion on Hotel Shilla to 'buy.'
The securities industry is focusing on casino stocks among the related shares. Ji In-hae, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, noted, "The inbound tourist indicators, which had been sluggish since the martial law, have started to recover from March. With the May holiday and the introduction of visa-free access for Chinese tourists in the third quarter, the momentum for the casinos is expected to expand."
DAISHIN SECURITIES has selected Lotte Tour Development as its top pick within the sector and raised its target price for GKL from 13,000 won to 14,000 won. Daol Investment & Securities also increased the target prices for GKL and PARADISE from 11,000 won to 13,000 won and from 14,000 won to 16,000 won, respectively.
In the case of Lotte Tour Development, the number of visitors in March this year reached a record high of 40,681, and the drop amount (the cash exchanged for chips) is the second highest figure recorded since August last year. GKL has focused on marketing to Chinese VIPs, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 9.4% and 10.1% in related visitors and drop amounts in the first quarter of this year.
However, there are opinions that the integrated resort (IR) being established in Japan may negatively impact future performances. The IR, which has started construction near the Osaka Expo site, includes Japan's first casino. The expected opening time is in the autumn of 2030.
다만 일각에서는 일본에 처음 들어서는 통합형 리조트(IR)로 인해 향후 실적에 악영향이 있을 수 있다는 의견이 나온다. 일본 오사카 엑스포 장소 인근에서 착공한 IR에는 일본 최초의 카지노가 포함됐다. 예상 개장 시점은 2030년 가을이다.
A securities industry official said, "Since the Osaka IR is still in the construction stage, the market is not expected to react sensitively right away. However, in the early phase of operations, it is likely to cater primarily to the domestic Japanese market, but in the long run, the combination of Japanese tourism and casinos could attract foreign tourists to Japan, requiring the Korean casino industry to readjust its VIP customer management strategies in the long term."