U.S. President Donald Trump decided to suspend reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries for 90 days, leading global investment bank Goldman Sachs to withdraw its forecast of a U.S. recession.
According to the financial investment industry on the 10th, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the U.S. within a year to 65% overnight, but lowered it to 45% within an hour.
Goldman Sachs estimated that the effective tariff rate would rise by 15 percentage points due to the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs. According to this scenario, this year's U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is expected to be around 0.5%.
Although Goldman Sachs lowered the possibility of recession to 45%, it is still high compared to 15% when Trump was elected president. The market considers that there are still many variables, given that the Trump administration raised the tariff rate against China to 125%, the universal tariff (10%) is still being imposed unlike the reciprocal tariff, and the European Union (EU) has announced retaliatory tariffs.
Goldman Sachs noted that frequent changes in trade policy by the Trump administration make it difficult to predict the economic trajectory. As a result, it assessed that corporations may delay investments or hiring due to uncertainty, which could pose a significant risk to the economy.